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[\/vc_column_text][vc_tta_accordion active_section=\u00bb9″ collapsible_all=\u00bbtrue\u00bb][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbVirtudes y l\u00edmites de la teor\u00eda cuantitativa del dinero. Ravier Adri\u00e1n Osvaldo.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1540465916461-12c108ab-496c\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131360628{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]La teor\u00eda cuantitativa del dinero es un instrumento \u00fatil para analizar la teor\u00eda y la pol\u00edtica monetaria. En ella se puede expresar la econom\u00eda real y monetaria, estudiar diversos escenarios y analizar diversas reglas monetarias como el inflation targeting, la regla de Friedman y la regla de Hayek. Una de sus m\u00e1ximas virtudes es lo f\u00e1cil que es expresar sus tres versiones en t\u00e9rminos emp\u00edricos, aunque tambi\u00e9n tiene sus l\u00edmites. Las magnitudes se miden en distintos momentos; la informaci\u00f3n llega demasiado tarde; y no incluye precios relativos, lo que le impide mostrar el efecto Cantillon.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbExchange rate pass-through, monetary policy and real shocks: an empirical evaluation. Aguirre Horacio A., Gonzalez Padilla Hector G.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1540465916496-4bc40c7a-71bd\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131384251{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]We look at a panel of Latin American countries from 1970 and 2016 to enquire how exchange rate pass-through has changed over time, and whether this owes to monetary or real shocks hitting the economy. We estimate conventional pass-through measures, both short and long run; then we obtain rolling estimates of those measures and relate them to monetary and real variables using fixed effect models. We find that: in keeping with previous studies, pass-through coefficients have fallen sharply in recent decades in Latin America; money growth tends to be strongly associated to short-run exchange rate pass through, with a small influence of real shocks such as terms-of-trade changes; money growth is also associated to long-run pass-through, while terms of trade shocks are more statistically significant. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that ERPT changes with the kind of shock and the monetary policy response to it.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][\/vc_tta_accordion][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n
[\/vc_column_text][vc_tta_accordion active_section=\u00bb\u00bb collapsible_all=\u00bbtrue\u00bb][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbContractionary devaluations in Latin America during the 2000s. Zack Guido, Montan\u00e9 Mart\u00edn, Libman Emiliano.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541518381568-22272aa0-1501″][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131412246{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]This paper explores the effects of currency depreciations on output for the main Latin-American countries that are currently using Inflation Targeting. We build a simple model that shows that contractionary effects from devaluations may lead to instability when monetary policy is conducted using a standard Taylor Rule. We show that a policy that keeps the interest rate fixed is sometimes preferable. Finally, we explore a family of VAR models for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, for the last decades, and we find that short-run contractionary effects from devaluations are present.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbD\u00e9ficit fiscal y tipo de cambio real en Argentina. An\u00e1lisis por medio de un modelo de EDGE. Mamondi Victor Daniel (UNC-Universidad Blas Pascal), Oviedo Jorge Mauricio, De la Rosa Adolfo Javier.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541518381675-febd54db-61b6″][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131430235{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]Es bien conocido que el D\u00e9ficit Fiscal genera deterioro en el Tipo de Cambio Real. Sin embargo, la composici\u00f3n del D\u00e9ficit Fiscal, ya sea generado por incremento de Gasto o Reducci\u00f3n de Impuestos puede resultar en efectos dis\u00edmiles. En este trabajo se analiza y se cuantifica el impacto diferencial generado por incrementos de Gastos en Consumo P\u00fablico, en Inversi\u00f3n P\u00fablica y en Reducci\u00f3n de Impuestos sobre el Tipo de Cambio Real. Para ello se desarrolla un Modelo de Equilibrio General Din\u00e1mico y Estoc\u00e1stico con Sector Gobierno y Externo el cual luego es calibrado y simulado para Argentina. Se concluye que el D\u00e9ficit Fiscal originado en reducci\u00f3n de Impuestos puede mejorar el Tipo de Cambio Real mientras que el generado por cualquier incremento de Gasto lo deteriora. A su vez el deterioro en el Tipo de Cambio Real resulta mayor cuando el Gasto P\u00fablico es aplicado a Consumo P\u00fablico que cuando se lo destina a Inversi\u00f3n P\u00fablica.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbLarge current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities. Aromi Jose Daniel.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541518381776-5ae86bfa-f5dc\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131449119{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]Using a sample covering 46 advanced and emerging economies over 1990-2017, it is found that large current account deficits are reversed significantly faster than what forecasters anticipate. In addition, large current account deficits are followed by negative surprises in economic growth, low asset returns and drops in sentiment. These regularities are observed for advanced and emerging economies. Analyses for different sample periods do not point to a gradual reduction in the reported patterns. These findings are indicative of systematic neglect of vulnerabilities and have implications for the understanding of past economic events and the design of macro-prudential policies.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][\/vc_tta_accordion][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n
[\/vc_column_text][vc_tta_accordion active_section=\u00bb\u00bb collapsible_all=\u00bbtrue\u00bb][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbAsistencia social y decisiones dentro del hogar. Evaluaci\u00f3n del PANES – Uruguay. Parada Cecilia.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541519078635-8917517c-03a2″][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131463543{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]El aumento del ingreso de un miembro del hogar puede conducir a cambios en su poder de decisi\u00f3n al interior del mismo y, como consecuencia, traducirse en efectos sobre algunas dimensiones espec\u00edficas. En este trabajo se estiman los efectos de una pol\u00edtica de trasferencias de ingresos a hogares de bajos recursos en Uruguay (PANES) sobre la probabilidad de divorcio\/separaci\u00f3n, cambios en la estructura de los hogares, distribuci\u00f3n de las tareas dom\u00e9sticas y la probabilidad de que las mujeres sean jefas de hogar. Para ello, se explota la discontinuidad en la asignaci\u00f3n al programa resultado del indicador de elegibilidad (ICC). Los resultados indican que la asistencia social redujo la probabilidad de separaci\u00f3n para aquellas personas que se encontraban en pareja e introdujo estabilidad en el n\u00famero de integrantes del hogar. Adem\u00e1s estos resultados muestran cierta persistencia en el tiempo una vez que dejan de percibir el beneficio, al menos en el muy corto plazo. Sin embargo, no se encontr\u00f3 que quien recibe la transferencia cambie su condici\u00f3n respecto a realizar las tareas del hogar o cambios en la probabilidad de que las mujeres, principales receptoras de la asistencia, sean jefas de hogar.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbThe cost and distributive impact of the informality incentives from non-contributory spending: the cases of AUH in Argentina and AFAM-PE in Uruguay. Garganta Santiago, Alaimo, Ver\u00f3nica, Carbajal, Fedora, Pessino Carola.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541519078744-31e1f610-3a4e\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131484048{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]Since the last decade most countries in Latin America have experienced substantial changes in their social policies implementing a set of non-contributory social assistance benefit programs. There is a permanent debate from the policy makers and academics about the direct and indirect labor market effects of these programs. The most concerning discussion in the region is the unintended incentive towards informality that these policies could generate. This paper estimates the fiscal cost and distributive impact of this labor distortion conducted by the two main non-contributory programs in Argentina and Uruguay: Asignaci\u00f3n Universal por Hijo (AUH) and Asignaciones Familiares \u2013 Plan de Equidad (AFAM-PE), respectively. We find that the substitution effect from formal to informal employment attributed to each program represents a relevant portion of the total budget of these policies. The results also reflect that a simple fiscal incidence analysis of these programs that ignore the consequences of these labor incentives on the market income distribution will exaggerate the true effect of these policies on the disposable or final income poverty and inequality.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][\/vc_tta_accordion][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n
[\/vc_column_text][vc_tta_accordion active_section=\u00bb\u00bb collapsible_all=\u00bbtrue\u00bb][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbPerspectivas de avance en la cadena de valor de los recursos minerales metal\u00edferos argentinos. Murguia Diego I. \u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541529813815-037c6eab-974c\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131525727{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]El trabajo presenta una visi\u00f3n general sobre las perspectivas de avanzar en la cadena de valor (industrializaci\u00f3n y red de proveedores) del cobre, oro, plata y litio en Argentina.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbLos retornos econ\u00f3micos de la investigaci\u00f3n agropecuaria en Argentina. Lema Daniel, Hermo Santiago.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541529813925-7b67e0b0-6414″][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131539810{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]En este trabajo presentamos una estimaci\u00f3n cuantitativa del impacto sobre la productividad agropecuaria de la investigaci\u00f3n p\u00fablica en ciencia y tecnolog\u00eda calculando tasas internas de retorno y ratios beneficio costo. Las estimaciones muestran una elasticidad de la TFP con respecto al stock de conocimiento p\u00fablico que var\u00edan en un rango entre 0.20 y 0.34 dependiendo de las especificaciones. Estos valores son similares a los reportados en trabajos previos que utilizan metodolog\u00edas comparables. Tambi\u00e9n consistente con la literatura previa se muestra que la inversi\u00f3n en investigaci\u00f3n agr\u00edcola tiene tasas de retorno positivas y significativas. Las TIR estimadas var\u00edan entre el 6% y el 12% dependiendo de las tasas de descuento y especificaciones definidas. Asimismo, los ratios Beneficio-Costo estimados son relativamente elevados, entre 35 y 63, para los distintos escenarios definidos, implicando tambi\u00e9n un alto retorno asociado a los gastos en actividades de investigaci\u00f3n.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbMaximizaci\u00f3n de beneficios con ciclos productivos end\u00f3genos y sucesivos. Benito Amaro Ignacio, Egolf Patricia.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541619946241-d4aa03fc-85c2″][vc_column_text]La f\u00f3rmula de Faustmann, es una herramienta muy \u00fatil para la evaluaci\u00f3n de actividades econ\u00f3micas donde su ciclo es end\u00f3geno a la maximizaci\u00f3n de beneficios, por lo que esta herramienta utilizada en el \u00e1mbito forestal, tambi\u00e9n puede ser aplicada a numerosos problemas como pueden ser los sucesivos ciclos de engorde o a la vida \u00fatil de un animal destinado a cr\u00eda en lo que respecta a ganader\u00eda. As\u00ed tambi\u00e9n, es posible combinar la actividad forestal en \u00e9sta f\u00f3rmula con actividades de ciclos productivos m\u00e1s cortos, como en el caso de la adaptaci\u00f3n a sistemas silvopastoriles (SSP) que se presentar\u00e1 en este trabajo o incluir externalidades como ocurre en otros trabajos que han modificado la f\u00f3rmula para considerar. De los m\u00faltiples criterios existentes, uno de los criterios m\u00e1s utilizados en el \u201cmundo forestal\u201d para determinar el turno \u00f3ptimo de corta, es el modelo de Faustmann. El presente estudio busca demostrar como la f\u00f3rmula de Faustmann es la herramienta indicada a utilizar cuando se quiere maximizar determinando directa o indirectamente la duraci\u00f3n del ciclo productivo en un problema que considera una sucesi\u00f3n infinita de ciclos productivos, como ser\u00edan los casos que se observa en este trabajo.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][\/vc_tta_accordion][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n
[\/vc_column_text][vc_tta_accordion active_section=\u00bb\u00bb collapsible_all=\u00bbtrue\u00bb][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbFinance programs for SMEs, access to credit and performance of firms: evidence from Argentina. Mart\u00ednez Correa Juli\u00e1n (UNLP), Giuliodori David, Gui\u00f1az\u00fa Sebasti\u00e1n, Butler In\u00e9s, Tacsir Ezequiel.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538156806-016023ae-0411″][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131575026{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]In recent years, a wide array of policies of public financing has been implemented in Argentina towards small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). However, the effect of these programs based on indicators regarding financial and productive performance of the beneficiary firms has not been analyzed so far. This paper assess the impact of three SME finance programs: FONAPYME, RBT and SGR. Based on firm-level administrative data covering the universe of formal Argentinean firms from 2007 to 2016 and combining matching method techniques with the fixed effects model, we estimate the causal effect of these programs on beneficiary firms’ financing, growth and competitiveness. Our results show, first, that the programs effectively foster the probability of accessing to finance and the volume of debt of firms that already accessed. Through this channel, they also enhance employment, average wage and, at to some extent, export behavior. The impact comes primarily from young companies, and particularly with respect to employment, from small-sized companies. When comparing these programs, it seems that the RBT’s rate grant is the one that presents the most profound effects upon the firms’ overall performance.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbThe countercyclical behavior of national development banks in Latin America and the Caribbean. Schclarek Curutchet Alfredo, Brei Michael.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538156921-3bc17c3c-b975″][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131592786{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]This paper investigates empirically the cyclical lending patterns of national development banks. To this purpose, we compare the lending activity of national development banks, across crisis and normal times, with that of public, foreign and domestic private banks using information on the annual financial statements of 336 major banks from 31 Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period of 1995- 2014. Using dynamic panel regressions that allow controlling for loan demand and other factors, we find robust evidence that national development and public retail-oriented banks have counteracted the slowdown in the lending activity of private banks during crises by significantly increasing their provision of loans. Our results are particularly important when considering productive lending to the corporate sector. The findings suggest that governments have played an active countercyclical role in their banking systems directly through both national development and retail-oriented public banks. Certainly, national development banks\u2019 size, governance structure and financial condition play a key role in determining that the countercyclical response is effective in mitigating the macroeconomic effects of financial turmoil.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbObst\u00e1culos hist\u00f3ricos, riesgos actuales y desaf\u00edos futuros al desarrollo de las Microfinanzas en Argentina: nueva evidencia en base a encuestas a referentes del sector nacional. Carballo Ignacio Esteban, Schvarztein Diana, Bueri Lody Mar\u00eda.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538335296-fcd39d90-d64b\u00bb][vc_column_text]El presente trabajo estudia el sector de las microfinanzas en Argentina. Espec\u00edficamente, realiza dos aportes a la literatura que analiza los obst\u00e1culos al desarrollo del mismo. En primer lugar, se propone un instrumento de creaci\u00f3n propia y f\u00e1cilmente replicable (que ampl\u00eda y ajusta el reconocido cuestionario regional \u201cBanana Skins\u201d) para analizar riesgos, amenazas y obst\u00e1culos percibidos por el sector local. En segundo lugar, se exponen los resultados de un primer relevamiento realizado on-line realizado a 33 referentes y l\u00edderes de instituciones tanto privadas como p\u00fablicas del pa\u00eds. As\u00ed, adem\u00e1s de resumir y actualizar los riesgos, amenazas y obst\u00e1culos hist\u00f3ricos relevados en la literatura, este trabajo presenta informaci\u00f3n in\u00e9dita que permite ordenar y estudiar comparativamente la urgencia percibida por los distintos grupos de actores en torno a estas variables.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][\/vc_tta_accordion][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n
[\/vc_column_text][vc_tta_accordion active_section=\u00bb\u00bb collapsible_all=\u00bbtrue\u00bb][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbFinancial incentives, fertility and son preference in Armenia. Pinto Maria Florencia, Posadas Josefina, Shapira Gil.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538407183-2b8418e7-f21a\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131624800{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]This paper estimates the effects of a childbirth grant policy introduced in Armenia in 2009 in response to low fertility rates. We employ a quasi-experimental strategy exploiting the timing of the policy change and eligibility rule\u2014women could get a larger transfer only for third and higher order births. We find an overall positive impact of the policy on the fertility of women who already had two births and we do not find heterogeneity in response to the policy by wealth, schooling or residence in rural versus urban area. While Armenia has one of the highest sex imbalances at birth, we do not find that additional newborns are significantly more likely to be male. We do find, however, that parents without any son are more likely to have an additional birth after the policy change in comparison to parents who already have at least one son.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbLegalizaci\u00f3n del aborto y cuidados prenatales entre las madres adolescentes: evidencia causal para Uruguay. Vel\u00e1zquez Cecilia, Alz\u00faa Mar\u00eda Laura.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538407291-ae21acaa-29b4″][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131666083{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]Este trabajo estudia el efecto de la legalizaci\u00f3n del aborto en Uruguay a fines de 2012 sobre indicadores de cuidados prenatales y salud neonatal de los hijos de madres adolescentes (15 a 19 a\u00f1os). Los resultados se\u00f1alan que todos los indicadores de cuidados prenatales -total de consultas e inicio de la atenci\u00f3n prenatal- mejoraron como consecuencia del mayor acceso a interrumpir un embarazo. A pesar de esto, no se observan efectos significativos sobre los indicadores de salud del reci\u00e9n nacido.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbLa concentraci\u00f3n de los altos ingresos. El caso de Argentina. Rossignolo Dar\u00edo Alejandro.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538407398-5f32771f-ae96″][vc_column_text]El presente trabajo constituye un ejercicio destinado a presentar un diagn\u00f3stico de la participaci\u00f3n de los tributos sobre altos ingresos en Argentina. Para ello deber\u00e1 analizarse en detalle la metodolog\u00eda de medici\u00f3n de la participaci\u00f3n de los sectores de ingresos elevados y su evoluci\u00f3n a lo largo del tiempo. Esto implica adicionar, a la informaci\u00f3n proveniente de encuestas de hogares datos no incluidos en las mismas, como la informaci\u00f3n sobre ingresos que se obtiene a partir de las declaraciones juradas del impuesto sobre la renta de personas f\u00edsicas, lo cual evidenciar\u00e1 que la desigualdad es superior a la que surge del an\u00e1lisis de dichas encuestas.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][\/vc_tta_accordion][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n
[\/vc_column_text][vc_tta_accordion active_section=\u00bb\u00bb collapsible_all=\u00bbtrue\u00bb][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbPrecios e impuestos sobre los combustibles en la Argentina. Porto Alberto, Pizzi Francisco.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538523643-8bd99762-0a4f\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131701985{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]Se calcula la transmisi\u00f3n de la variaci\u00f3n del precio internacional del petr\u00f3leo crudo a los precios internos del petr\u00f3leo y los combustibles l\u00edquidos en la Argentina entre enero de 2005 y junio de 2017. Se distinguen distintos periodos identificados seg\u00fan la variaci\u00f3n del precio internacional del crudo. Los c\u00e1lculos revelan una alta variabilidad de todos los precios. Se estima un modelo din\u00e1mico siendo los principales resultados que hay bajo traspaso del precio internacional al precio interno del crudo, que el traspaso del precio interno del crudo al precio sin impuestos de los combustibles es similar a la relaci\u00f3n entre esas variables a nivel internacional. que el impuesto a los combustibles se mantiene estable a lo largo del tiempo y se traslada a los consumidores y que el traspaso del precio internacional al precio final de los combustibles se aproxima a la unidad. Existe asimetr\u00eda en la respuesta del precio de los combustibles siendo mayor para la baja del precio del petr\u00f3leo. Se vincula la disociaci\u00f3n del precio relativo externo-interno con la evoluci\u00f3n de la producci\u00f3n, consumo y exportaci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbDistributional impact of a reduction of energy subsidies: the recent policy reform in Argentina. Lugo Maria Ana, Giuliano Fernando, Masut Ariel, Puig Jorge Pablo.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538523753-f3e19d41-51ea\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131717455{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]In this paper we analyze the distributional impact of the gradual reduction of energy subsidies in Argentina implemented since 2016. As the policy reform also includes the introduction of a scheme to protect the less well-off families (social tariff), we also review how well the targeting mechanism works. We apply the traditional benefit-incidence analysis using households survey data, focusing on residential natural gas and electricity subsidies in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area \u2013AMBA. Our results support the finding that gradual increases in energy tariffs, coupled with the current social tariff scheme, makes the system less pro-rich, but it fails to fully protect the more vulnerable portions of the population. The distributional impact of the full removal of subsidies (other than the social tariffs) results from the interaction between those that qualify for the social tariff, the coverage of the gas and electricity networks, and the energy consumption across different quintiles of the income distribution.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbSame city, worlds apart: multidimensional poverty and residential segregation in Buenos Aires. Maccio Jimena Marina, Mitchell Ann (UCA).Disentangling the distributive impact of fiscal policy. Cont Walter Alberto, Porto Alberto. \u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541620140044-36f8cfd1-d65f\u00bb][vc_column_text]This paper measures the distributive impact of fiscal policy on personal and regional income distribution and provides a decomposition of the redistributive effect of fiscal policy for individual income units and when they belong to groups. This methodology is useful to identify how much of redistributive effect and also progressive\/regressive effects apply within groups, between groups and among overlapping units, and whether there are tensions between different effects. The execution of fiscal policy in Argentina for year 2010 is the case of study. Fiscal policy reduces income inequality under both personal and regional definitions. The vertical effect is strong and weakly compensated by reranking. The vertical effect is a net result of progressive expenditures and regressive taxes. The selection of groups displays particular results. The findings are relevant for the design of fiscal policy in federal countries that pursue both efficiency and equity goals. In the case of Argentina (and this certainly can be extended to other federal countries), this may include rebalancing expenditures among different kinds or levels of governments, as well as the re-designing the tax system and eliminating tradeoffs observed from the current context.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][\/vc_tta_accordion][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n
[\/vc_column_text][vc_tta_accordion active_section=\u00bb\u00bb collapsible_all=\u00bbtrue\u00bb][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbForecasting inflation in argentina: a comparison of different models. D\u00b4Amato Laura, Garegnani Lorena, G\u00f3mez Aguirre Maximiliano, Krysa Ariel, Libonatti Luis.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538651755-d976fb4f-eacd\u00bb][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131750307{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]In general, central banks are concerned with keeping the inflation rate stable while also sustaining output close to an efficient level. Under \u201cinflation targeting\u201d, forecasts of the evolution of the general price level are an essential input for policy decisions and these are usually released in quarterly \u201cInflation Reports\u201d. The costs and benefits of transparency in monetary policy are widely debated, but the need for a central bank to incorporate forecasts of future inflation is broadly agreed. In short, forecasting inflation is of foremost importance to households, businesses, and policymakers. In 2016, the Central Bank of Argentina began announcing and inflation targeting scheme. In this context, providing the authorities with good estimates of relevant macroeconomic variables turns out to be crucial to make the pertinent corrections to reach the desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models to forecast inflation in Argentina and conducts a comparison of their predictive ability at different horizons. Our variety of models includes: (i) univariate time series models, (ii) VARs, Bayesian VARs and Time-Varying Parameter VARs, and (iii) conventional New Keynesian Phillips Curves including one that incorporates money to evaluate its information content as a predictor of inflation. We compare the predictive performance of the different methods using the Giacomini-White test over the relevant horizons for monetary policy decisions.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbNowcasting activity in argentina using dynamic factor models. Blanco Emilio Fernando, D’amato Laura, Dogliolo Fiorella, Garegnani Mar\u00eda Lorena.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538651894-8920e283-ba14″][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131766908{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]Having a correct assessment of current business cycle conditions is one of the major challenges for monetary policy conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a useful tool for having an immediate perception of economic conditions. We develop a GDP growth Nowcasting exercise using a broad and restricted set of indicators to construct different models including dynamic factor models as well as a FAVAR. We compare each individual model with alternative combinations in a pseuro-real time out-ofsample exercise and find an improvement in predictive performance using the Giacomini and White (2004) test. Finally we introduce a DFM state-space approach, being able to measure the impact of data releases or news on sequential forecast.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbProducto potencial en un modelo de correcci\u00f3n al equilibrio macroecon\u00f3mico: Argentina 1900-2018. Gay Alejandro.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538739554-d51c8420-52bd\u00bb][vc_column_text]En este trabajo se estima el producto potencial en el marco de un modelo de correcci\u00f3n al equilibrio d\u00f3nde interactuan oferta y demanda agregada. Se estima un modelo VAR I (2) cointegrado para Argentina en el per\u00edodo 1900-2018 que incluye: producto, capital ajustado por calidad, trabajo ajustado por calidad, tierra, consumo y t\u00e9rminos del intercambio. Se obtiene que las participaciones de los factores en el producto son de 0.45, 0.49, 0.06 para el capital, trabajo y tierra respectivamente. No se rechaza la hip\u00f3tesis de que el coeficiente de la tierra y de los los t\u00e9rminos del intercambio son iguales, lo que es compatible con el supuesto de que los t\u00e9rminos del intercambio afectan la calidad de la tierra. Por otra parte, en la funci\u00f3n consumo el coeficiente de los t\u00e9rminos del intercambio es de 0.18, indicando que una mejora en los t\u00e9rminos del intercambio aumenta el consumo. Para poder realizar ejercicios de simulaci\u00f3n se elabora luego un modelo VAR I (1) con id\u00e9nticas especificaciones en cuanto a vectores y variables dummy, y se estima el producto potencial y la brecha del producto en el per\u00edodo 1970-2018. Se encuentra que en el a\u00f1o 2017 el PIB se encontraba 3% por encima del potencial.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][\/vc_tta_accordion][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n
[\/vc_column_text][vc_tta_accordion active_section=\u00bb\u00bb collapsible_all=\u00bbtrue\u00bb][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbDiferenciarse para no competir: escogiendo sistemas de remuneraci\u00f3n bajo competencia estrat\u00e9gica. Fern\u00e1ndez Mat\u00edas Daniel.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538782621-7d465506-44e5″][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131792449{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]En este trabajo proponemos un modelo que integra la competencia estrat\u00e9gica con la delegaci\u00f3n de las decisiones de producci\u00f3n y la forma de remunerar a los agentes dentro de la empresa. De esta manera, se trata de un modelo principal-multi-agente, donde el due\u00f1o de la firma (principal) delega en los trabajadores (agentes) las decisiones de competencia, a trav\u00e9s de la propia determinaci\u00f3n del proceso de producci\u00f3n. No obstante, la firma puede influir en los incentivos de sus trabajadores al elegir entre dos esquemas de pago: participaci\u00f3n de las ganancias proporcional al esfuerzo realizado (RSP) o pago por unidad producida (PR). Encontramos que PR es una estrategia estrictamente dominante cuando la cantidad de trabajadores contratados por cada firma es baja, pero cuando la fuerza laboral se expande el equilibrio de Nash se comporta como un juego de la gallina, donde las empresas buscan diferenciarse en la forma que remuneran a sus trabajadores. En este sentido, encontramos que la cantidad de trabajadores necesaria para que las empresas elijan esquemas de pago diferentes depende de la productividad y el costo del esfuerzo de los trabajadores, pero no del tama\u00f1o del mercado.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbAssessment of collusion damages and efficiency costs in auctions. Gabrielli Mar\u00eda Florencia, Willington Manuel.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1541538782754-0860d3a7-7d19″][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1542131807246{padding-top: 20px !important;padding-right: 20px !important;padding-bottom: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;background-color: #eaeaea !important;}\u00bb]In this paper we propose a structural method for estimating the efficiency and procurement costs associated with bidding rings in a first-price sealed-bid auction. It is based on the auction estimation literature (Guerre, Perrigne, and Vuong [2000], GPV 2000) and is consistent with damage assessment methodologies used in antitrust cases, in the sense that we build a butfor (competitive) scenario and then estimate the differences between the but-for scenario and the factual one (White, Marshall, and Kennedy [2006]).In a first stage we estimate pseudo-costs for all serious bidders following GPV 2000. We then estimate the relationship between the recovered costs and the observed bids of non-colluded bidders and use it to calculate the counterfactual bids of colluded firms. We apply our methodology to California highway procurement data after first identifying a potential set of colluders using standard tests in the literature. We find that the procurement cost associated to the four members ring identified is 4%, that total profits for the ring are 26% higher than in the competitive scenario and that there is no efficiency cost.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=\u00bbFavoritism, anonimity and renegotiation in procurement. Weinschelbaum Federico, Arozamena Leandro, Ganuza Juan Jose.\u00bb tab_id=\u00bb1542131810279-7b74ce94-fe2a\u00bb][vc_column_text]This paper sheds light on a mechanism for implementing favoritism even in a symmetric framework. We analyze a procurement setting in which the optimal design of the project is unknown. The sponsor has to invest in specifying the project. The larger the investment, the higher the probability that the initial design is optimal. Otherwise, a bargaining process between the winning firm and the sponsor takes place. The bargaining benefits of the winning firm are larger when this is the favored firm. Given this comparative advantage, the favored firm bids more aggressively and then, it wins more often than standard firms. We show that the sponsor invests less in specifying the initial design when favoritism is stronger. Underinvestment in design specification is a tool for giving a comparative advantage to the favored firm.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_tta_section][\/vc_tta_accordion][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
[vc_row content_placement=\u00bbtop\u00bb bg_image=\u00bb2083″ dt_parallax_inertia=\u00bb0″][vc_column][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner][vc_column_text] ASOCIACI\u00d3N ARGENTINA DE ECONOM\u00cdA POL\u00cdTICA – LIII REUNI\u00d3N ANUAL [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row dt_row_type=\u00bbin_container\u00bb][vc_column][vc_column_text] Jueves\u00a015 de Noviembre – Sesiones de la\u00a0Tarde [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text] Aula 104…<\/p>\n